Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?
The answer is that the contestant should switch to the other door. Contestants who switch have a 2/3 chance of winning the car, while contestants who stick to their choice have only a 1/3 chance.
Amazing, right? If the answer isn't obvious to you, you need to read the book. Still don't believe it matters to switch? Spend some time working out the Monty Hall problem.
From the Publisher:
Why do so many otherwise smart people make foolish financial choices? Why do investors sell stocks just before they skyrocket -- and cling to others as they plummer? Why do shoppers overspend when using credit cards rather than cash? What do our habits of tipping or buying lottery tickets indicate about our relationship with money?
In this fascinating investigation of the ways we spend, invest, save, borrow, and waste money, Gary Belsky and Thomas Gilovich reveal the psychological causes -- the patterns of thinking and decision making -- of irrational behavior. Most important, they focus on the decisions we make every day and, using entertaining examples, provide invaluable tips on avoiding the financial faux pas that can cost thousands of dollars each year.